"May you live in interesting times." So goes the so-called ancient Chinese curse. These are very interesting times in the television broadcast industry. The field is changing, in much the same way the music industry has changed. At issue: the effects of new models of content distribution.
We’re beginning to see a shift from the traditional broadcast model to Video on Demand (VOD). Disney/ABC is already making a handful of shows available from Apple's iTunes Music Store for $1.99 a piece. NBC Universal has announced it will make some shows available on demand from DIRECTV through a new DVR device for 99 cents, and CBS is doing the same with Comcast. Now Warner Bros. is going to make very old shows viewable for free on the web. Great news for those hankering to sit in front of their computers to watch Welcome Back, Kotter. All of these are experiments, as consumers demand more and more flexibility. The question is, can broadcasting as we know it survive?
I’m convinced it will…for the most part. But not without a lot of changes. And local stations will have a more difficult time than the networks. What broadcasters have always offered that basic cable cannot is quality. The networks have more money to put into shows, because they have more viewers with more eyeballs that are attractive to advertisers. But as TiVo becomes more popular, and these new VOD distribution schemes begin to take hold, more and more people are skipping the traditional commercials.
Enter product placement. Its not really new. In the 1950s, Gordon’s Gin paid for Katherine Hepburn to heap their product overboard in The African Queen. Its become increasingly common in television as well as film. In fact, its become so common, that a group of entertainment unions is calling for public debate and possible restrictions on the practice. I suspect the practice will continue to grow.
Something that isn’t happening yet, but I suspect will, is the use of targeted ads on VOD-distributed shows. VOD can allow programmers and advertisers to know who is watching. Ads can be targeted to specific audience. Different viewers can get different ads. And advertisers are willing to pay more for that kind of access. The question remains, how to make viewers sit still for the ads, and not scan past them. Two things I imagine will happen: shorter, more frequent breaks that are not worth scanning past; and graphic banner ads inserted directly over programming. That already happens in sporting event coverage. I think that’s likely to become more and more commonplace.
But what is in greatest danger, I believe, is the local station. Without the power of prime time, stations could see their news audiences dwindle. This will have its greatest impact in smaller markets, where the news may not be as powerful a draw as it is in big cities like Chicago, where I work. Here in Chicago, quality newscasts draw in large viewerships, and I expect that to continue. But even here, the migration to VOD and downloadable shows may cause some erosion. These are indeed, interesting times.
I welcome your comments.
Leave a comment